COVID-19

[otismo]

it is not "The Enviroment"

it is not "The Ecology"

to be precise :

we live in a

Micro-Managed, Biologically-Balanced, Multi-System EcoStructure.

[simsim314]

However, I have an immune-suppressed family member who I need to protect, and an aging mother on the east coast in her late 90s and susceptible to just about any kind of health risk.

People at risk should quarantine themselves the best way they can. They basically need medical quarantine (i.e. sterilizing everything which comes into their radius). I personally don't meet my parents. As of closer family members you can't avoid contact that are in danger group, I would isolate the whole family. Basically buy enough food for 6 months at least and stay at home all time. This what I was planning to do in January when the initial stats were 30% mortality rate.

But we have higher expectations than that, and we should. The nightmare is that the cases and not just fatalities overflow our ability to handle them...Nobody seems to react until it is at least two weeks later than their best shot of controlling spread...I comforted myself with the idea that we must have something better like super-high tech medical FEMA trailers.

I would say if this was exam to our society, we've failed miserably in all levels. I wonder if someone is trying to think about the next logical step - how do we install decision makers, or decision making mechanisms that will ensure better judgement. For example any medical specialist I know of, or anyone with basically common sense and who was following china outbreak, could see what will happen due to lack of action in January already. So if our society was run by more specialists, who can make the right decisions in time instead of currently positions held by unqualified politicians which are chosen based on demagogy, we could be in much better shape now. What bothers me is not the fact that this happens, but the fact that it was completely preventable in more meaningful social organisation which utilizes the crowd knowledge into policy making much more effectively. What gets me frustrated even further, is that everyone are basically defending the authorities and their measures instead of placing harsh judgement on the system as it's now. It's not a flaw of some politician it's a flow of how politics as its done today, it's lack of communication between humanity knowledge base and policy making, because our politics sucks.

With that in mind, I was trying to come with a simple model of what these attenuated curves should look like. Obviously, the pure exponential is easy...

It's exponential at first, then there is a very long tail. If you have family member in risk group, I would worry more about the tail rather than the exponential part. When we stop the exponent we actually prolong the tail, making this period last a year or two up to vaccine. I've no good solution for this situation now, seems like everyone are talking about slowing down the infection rate, if so this means longer quarantine period. How would the economy look with 99% of population quarantined for 2 years?

As of stock markets, I saw this happens with crypto currency very well. It very volatile and no one seems to know why, looks like people are just doing random stuff copying other random people doing other random stuff. I would say this is kind of market failure, if the politics wasn't enough...

[otismo]

the real question is how many decision makers do we lose before cascading system failure sets in

that is what the stock market is looking at...

[pcallahan]

It's exponential at first, then there is a very long tail. If you have family member in risk group, I would worry more about the tail rather than the exponential part. When we stop the exponent we actually prolong the tail, making this period last a year or two up to vaccine. I've no good solution for this situation now, seems like everyone are talking about slowing down the infection rate, if so this means longer quarantine period. How would the economy look with 99% of population quarantined for 2 years?

It's obviously impossible to extend the current lockdown indefinitely. There are a number of ideas on what it would take to go back to something like normal. There was an NYT article with four benchmarks that seemed reasonable to me.

We won't be developing a significant amount of "herd immunity" without a vaccine. In the meantime, extensive testing and tracking could be a substitute. If you are identifying people after they have only spread to a few others and isolating them, you can have a linear-growth steady state, and South Korea looks a lot like that https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... uth-korea/ (I hadn't checked for a while and they might be doing even better now and pushing the numbers down further).

Another readily available tool is antibody testing to identify those who should be able to work outside the house. I would like to see more emphasis on this.

What worries me is that in the US at least, there is still a lot of talk about reopening and getting the economy going, and much less talk about the necessary preparation. This is not limited to the most vocal deniers of the crisis. I think there is a path to getting the economy moving along at x% efficiency, where x is measurably less than 100, but not cripplingly so. It will take more than wishful thinking though.

[simsim314]

We won't be developing a significant amount of "herd immunity" without a vaccine.

The production of medical equipment needed for treating mild cases is now at full capacity. If we assume the production is linear the herd immunity is quadratic. Not exponent but also not linear.

available tool is antibody testing

Agree, this is probably most important now.

I've a problem with any economy based claim. Economy is just social organisation to optimize productivity, it can't be of more valuable than life. Actually the valid question would be how do we create smarter economy which will be resilient to such events? Economy exists for people, not people for the economy.

[otismo]

economy exists because we are DEPENDENT PEOPLE

we depend on computers, for example : turn them all off, and people die

so we are a dependent form of life : civilized people know what we depend on : civilization...

[otismo]

I wonder NOW does it make sense that we should have a Pet Virus and he should be the Good Guy Virus and he should be a Pet Computer Virus

and his name should be Viro , a. k. a. glider

http://viropet.com

http://viro.pet

[Dylan Chen]

I wonder NOW does it make sense that we should have a Pet Virus and he should be the Good Guy Virus and he should be a Pet Computer Virus

and his name should be Viro , a. k. a. glider

http://viropet.com

http://viro.pet

Amazing work


virus-like pattern in GOL

[simsim314]

economy exists because we are DEPENDENT PEOPLE

Yes we are dependent but the way economy makes priorities for us is close to arbitrary (probably with some rough correlation with human wealth but not really). If economy would be effective we would find economical reason to stay at home and will not need government intervention to close by force stores and crowded places.

we depend on computers, for example : turn them all off, and people die

Of course we depend on many things. But eventually one needs to create prioritization. Will a hospital buy new computers or stay with the old ones? It's all based on economy and pricing, which is as I said not really presenting and prioritizing human wealth so well.

[otismo]

now is BEST TIME to start a home-based business

my suggestion is an online internet store or shop

we have domain name AVAILABILITY for a change

and a lot of ways to boot-strap operations cheap

and lots of resources to get started so why not ?

Cheers !

[yujh]

now is BEST TIME to start a home-based business

my suggestion is an online internet store or shop

we have domain name AVAILABILITY for a change

and a lot of ways to boot-strap operations cheap

and lots of resources to get started so why not ?

Cheers !

Where?(blocking ad)

[Hunting]

now is BEST TIME to start a home-based business

my suggestion is an online internet store or shop

we have domain name AVAILABILITY for a change

and a lot of ways to boot-strap operations cheap

and lots of resources to get started so why not ?

Cheers !

Where?(blocking ad)

Well, otismo is not a spambot. He is just business-minded. This is his major contribution as well.

[yujh]

now is BEST TIME to start a home-based business

my suggestion is an online internet store or shop

we have domain name AVAILABILITY for a change

and a lot of ways to boot-strap operations cheap

and lots of resources to get started so why not ?

Cheers !

Where?(blocking ad)

Well, otismo is not a spambot. He is just business-minded. This is his major contribution as well.

The requested page cannot be found



I know the website that you meant

[Amy]

Protect yourself to protect others. Stay safe and try to keep social distance as much as possible. As it seems there is no other way to defeat this silent killer other than following provided health instructions as there is no exact cure. Globally, all people are warned to stay home, stay safe. Perhaps it may not seem practical. But it's the first step to rescue yourself.

[yujh]

Protect yourself to protect others. Stay safe and try to keep social distance as much as possible. As it seems there is no other way to defeat this silent killer other than following provided health instructions as there is no exact cure. Globally, all people are warned to stay home, stay safe. Perhaps it may not seem practical. But it's the first step to rescue yourself.

I and my schoolmates are warned to go to school.

[Hunting]

Protect yourself to protect others. Stay safe and try to keep social distance as much as possible. As it seems there is no other way to defeat this silent killer other than following provided health instructions as there is no exact cure. Globally, all people are warned to stay home, stay safe. Perhaps it may not seem practical. But it's the first step to rescue yourself.

And join Rosetta@Home.

[yujh]

Protect yourself to protect others. Stay safe and try to keep social distance as much as possible. As it seems there is no other way to defeat this silent killer other than following provided health instructions as there is no exact cure. Globally, all people are warned to stay home, stay safe. Perhaps it may not seem practical. But it's the first step to rescue yourself.

And join Rosetta@Home.

What and how?

[wzkchem5]

Protect yourself to protect others. Stay safe and try to keep social distance as much as possible. As it seems there is no other way to defeat this silent killer other than following provided health instructions as there is no exact cure. Globally, all people are warned to stay home, stay safe. Perhaps it may not seem practical. But it's the first step to rescue yourself.

And join Rosetta@Home.

What and how?

It's a distributed computational project that recently includes the protein structure prediction of some COVID-19-related proteins. To join it you must have GPUs suitable for scientific computing.

[Hunting]

And join Rosetta@Home.

What and how?

It's a distributed computational project that recently includes the protein structure prediction of some COVID-19-related proteins. To join it you must have GPUs suitable for scientific computing.

I thought R@H does not support GPU computations.

[wzkchem5]

What and how?

It's a distributed computational project that recently includes the protein structure prediction of some COVID-19-related proteins. To join it you must have GPUs suitable for scientific computing.

I thought R@H does not support GPU computations.

I can't remember it clearly but I think I read from somewhere that the COVID-19-related computational tasks require GPUs.

[Hunting]

It's a distributed computational project that recently includes the protein structure prediction of some COVID-19-related proteins. To join it you must have GPUs suitable for scientific computing.

I thought R@H does not support GPU computations.

I can't remember it clearly but I think I read from somewhere that the COVID-19-related computational tasks require GPUs.

I think I read from somewhere that R@H does not support GPU. Somewhere in its forum I suppose.

After my PlutoniumSearch dream come true I will also create a BOINC called Automaton@Home XD

[otismo]

now good time to do CGoL Art

Conway gets the bug

JHC-gets-the-bug.png (73.65 KiB) Viewed 5625 times

Fine Art - Suitable for Framing

JHC-gets-the-bug-BMP-block.mc

rendered with script

(1.04 MiB) Downloaded 122 times

[Hunting]

Very nice art @otismo!

[roolif]

Perhaps the right thread was "useless pattern & code" ...

Anyway, with this you can enjoy the SARS genome in all its glory. Procedure :

1. Grab the sequence from GenBank: MN988668.1
2. in notepad++, isolate the genome sequence from ORIGIN to <EOF>;
3. using column mode, insert gparse(" to the left, and ") to the right of each line
4. Paste all the lines within the body of the ParseAll function :
   

   Code: Select all

   -- Covid_Soup
   -- 
   -- Exercise to build a soup based on the SARS v2 genome sequence
   --
   -- roolif, 20200430J2349
   --
   -- heavily non-optimized :-)
   -- 
   local g = golly()
   local gp = require "gplus"
   local pattern = gp.pattern
   ------------------------------------------------------------------- BASE DEPICTIONS
   local ade = pattern("3o$obo$3o!")
   local cyt = pattern("b2o$obo$2o!")
   local thy = pattern("bo$obo$bo!")
   local gua = pattern("$bo!")
   -- human readable set :-)
   local ade = pattern("3o$obo$3o$obo$obo!")
   local cyt = pattern("3o$o$o$o$3o!")
   local thy = pattern("3o$bo$bo$bo$bo!")
   local gua = pattern("3o$o$obo$obo$3o!")
   -------------------------------------------------------------------
   function squarify()
   -- we want a squarish soup, so we have to calculate how many bases will fit in a line
   -- total number of bases in the seguence are 29881, give or take
   	bases = 29881
   	cells = bases * dx * dy
   	soup_width = math.sqrt ( cells )
   	maxb = soup_width // dx
   	end
   	
   function gparse ( seqline )
   	local ch0 = 1
   	local ch1 = string.len( seqline )
   	for i = ch0, ch1 do
   		g.show(i)
   		ch = seqline:sub(i,i)
   		vbase = string.find("actg",ch)
   		if vbase then
   			if ch == "a" then ade.put(x,y) end
   			if ch == "c" then cyt.put(x,y) end
   			if ch == "t" then thy.put(x,y) end
   			if ch == "g" then gua.put(x,y) end
   			x = x + dx
   			b = b + 1
   			if b > maxb then
   				x = x0
   				b = 0
   				y = y + dy
   				end
   			end
   		end
   	end
   
   function ParseAll()
   	y = y0
   	x = x0
   ----------------------------------------------------------------	HERE !
   	gparse(" nnn blah blah blah blah") --       REPLACE WITH GPARSE LINES
   ----------------------------------------------------------------	HERE !
   	end
   ---------------------------------------------------------------------   
   -------------------------------------------- ADJUSTABLE PARAMETERS
   dx = 5   -- horizontal space between bases
   dy = 7   -- vertical ditto
   x0 = 0
   y0 = 0
   -------------------------------------------- ADJUSTABLE PARAMETERS
   b = 0
   maxb = 15
   
   squarify()
   ParseAll()
   
   g.fit()
   g.update()
   

5. Play with the ADJUSTABLE PARAMETERS, the DEPICTIONS or whatever
6. Run it

Or, if TL, here it is :

covid_s1.mc

SARS GENOME SOUP

(158.05 KiB) Downloaded 109 times